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The curious confidence in numbers when officials mis count the blessings of social policy A guest post by Bob Edlin: We should be dismayed not that Treasury number-crunchers erred with child poverty figures but that the numbers which emerge from their economic models can be so blatantly peddled as the stuff of political certainty. Secretary to the Treasury Gabriel Makhlouf said it is currently remodelling the projected impact of both packages and expects the new numbers to available in late February. The Dominion Post reduced news of the Treasury blunder to a brief on Page 3 but the Stuff website says the child poverty reductions were over-estimated when the previous National Government delivered its Budget in May last year and the error appears to have carried through to affect the current Government. The extent of any change in the projections on child poverty is still being determined. Kirk nevertheless seems to have astonishing confidence in the robustness of the numbers that eventually will be spat out when fresh figures are fed into the Treasury model.

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Simon said the Elite Trophy, which features 12 players ranked roughly from nine to 20, should precede the WTA Finals, the traditional season finale which has the women’s top eight and which finished on Sunday. It won’t happen in but for ’19 and beyond it would be my goal to see the WTA Finals as the last event of the year, no question. Simon said he had no plans to cut back on the busy end-of-year schedule, which is focused on Asia and is often hit by a spate of injuries and retirements as the long season takes its toll.

Simon admitted that the tour had a “crowded and mature calendar”, but he said scrapping Zhuhai, or any other Asian tournament, was not necessarily the answer. That can hurt you too. The Tianjin Open also has a purpose-built facility. Simon said China had “a great desire” to develop in tennis, following Li Na’s breakthrough achievement in winning two Grand Slam singles tournaments before retiring in However, he acknowledged that more work was needed to attract crowds, particularly at a new event such as Zhuhai, which started in But I think that the idea that because that’s a challenge, that you shouldn’t be here, is the wrong approach China currently has five women in the top , led by Peng Shuai at With more players coming into the sport and more opportunities, “the odds of another group coming through will be very good”, he said.

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